Nigeria is about to hold Africa’s largest democratic
exercise. Here’s what to know about its presidential election.Nigeria is about
to hold Africa’s largest democratic exercise. Here’s what to know about its
presidential candidates.
Here's what to know about Nigeria's presidential election
Nigerians will head to the polls Saturday in a
fiercely-contested presidential vote that analysts say is too close to call. It
will be the largest democratic exercise on the continent as Africa’s most
populous nation picks a new president.
The crucial election comes as the country battles myriad
economic and security problems that range from fuel and cash shortages to
rising terror attacks, high inflation, and a plummeting local currency.
For the first time since the country’s return to democratic
rule in 1999, none of the candidates is an incumbent or a former military
leader. Outgoing President Muhammadu Buhari is term-limited and will step down
amid a patchy legacy that has brought “a lot of frustration and anger” to Nigerian
voters, analysts say.
Who are the candidates?
Eighteen candidates are in the running for Nigeria’s highest
office, each confident they can turn the country’s fortunes around if voted
into power, but opinion polls suggest three are leading the race for the
popular vote.
One of the key contenders is Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the
candidate of Buhari’s party, the All Progressives Congress (APC). Another is
the main opposition leader and former vice president Atiku Abubakar, of the
People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
Nigeria’s presidential elections have typically been
two-horse races between the ruling and opposition parties, but this year’s vote
has a third strong contender, Peter Obi, who is running under the lesser known
Labour Party.
Tinubu, 70, a former governor of Nigeria’s wealthy Lagos
State, wields significant influence in the southwestern region where he is
acclaimed as a political godfather and kingmaker.
The affluent political veteran, boasts of aiding the
election of Buhari to the presidency on his fourth attempt in 2015, after three
previous unsuccessful bids. Bola Ahmed Tinubu, foreground right, presidential
candidate of the All Progressives Congress, Nigeria ruling party, during an
election campaign rally.
After decades as a political puppet master, Tinubu declares
it is now his turn to emerge from the shadows into the presidency; his campaign
slogan is “Emi Lokan,” which translates to “it is my turn,” in his native
Yoruba language.
The ruling party candidate has, however, been dogged by
allegations of graft which he strongly denies. Critics say he has also not
convincingly addressed concerns about his health, and has, at times, appeared
confused and incoherent on the campaign trail. He has also made gaffes that
have made him the butt of jokes and viral memes on social media.
Tinubu has also come under criticism for abstaining from
presidential debates and delegating questions about his manifesto to members of
his team during a recent outing at the UK think tank Chatham House.
One of Tinubu’s main challengers is the opposition party’s
Abubakar, who is running for the sixth time following five previous losses.
Candidate of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Atiku Abubakar
during a campaign rally in Kano, northwest Nigeria.
Abubakar, 76, who served as vice president from 1999 to
2007, is a staunch capitalist who made his fortune investing in various sectors
in the country. The tycoon has been investigated for corruption in the past.
However, he denies any wrongdoing.
Many believe Abubakar’s presidential ambition might usurp an
unofficial arrangement to rotate the presidency between Nigeria’s northern and
southern regions, since he is from the same northern region as the outgoing
leader, Buhari.
Nigerian presidential candidate Peter Obi on his plans to
transform Nigeria's economy. Peter Obi is a two-time former governor of Anambra
State who is being touted as a credible alternative to the two major
candidates.
Obi eschews the excesses of the typical ‘African Big Man’
leader He shuns a large entourage, flies economy class and carries his own
luggage. His “no frills” approach has attracted hordes of supporters, mostly
young Nigerians who call themselves ‘Obidients.’
Obi is also the only Christian among the leading candidates.
His southeastern region has yet to produce a president or vice president since
Nigeria returned to civil rule in 1999.
The ruling party’s Tinubu, although from the religiously
mixed southwestern part of the country, is a Muslim and also chose a Muslim
running mate, fueling public anger over his choice.
Described by Tinubu as “Mr. Stingy,” Obi, 61, is famed for
his frugal approach and is seen as a ‘Mr Clean’ of Nigerian politics. However,
his offshore accounts were among those found in the Pandora Papers, which
exposed the hidden riches of the global elite in 2021. Obi denies any
wrongdoing.
Will elections hold?
The past two elections have been postponed at short notice
and there are fears this one will suffer the same fate. However the electoral
commission insists there will be no disruptions.
Prof. Kingsley Moghalu, a political economist and former
presidential candidate in the 2019 election told CNN he expected a high
turnout, “except if suppressed by a security breakdown of any sort,” he told
CNN.
More than 93 million Nigerians are registered to vote but
uncertainty hangs over voter turnout on polling day, with insecurity among the
biggest concerns. Public policy analyst Abideen Olasupo told CNN the
uncertainties surrounding this year’s elections have put off many voters.
“Nigerian voters are currently the most disturbed and
confused voters in the world right now because they are not sure if the
election will hold; and if it will hold, they are not sure if the process will
not be manipulated,” Olasupo said.
Nigeria delays plans to replace its banknotes after chaotic
scenes at ATMs. Citizens have also been disrupted by an attempt to curb vote
buying by making the old currency notes useless to prevent rogue politicians
from stockpiling cash. But there are fears shortage of the new naira notes
could disrupt the elections itself.
Electoral body INEC reportedly warned that the inability of
banks to distribute enough of the new cash could make it difficult to pay
temporary staff and security guards needed to operate thousands of polling
stations for presidential and parliamentary elections on Feb. 25.
As it is, voting will not take place in more than 200
polling units across Nigeria, in places such as Imo and Taraba (two of
Nigeria’s conflict-prone states) says INEC, because of concerns over security.
Separatist gangs and marauding gunmen known locally as
bandits have terrorized parts of the country through kidnappings for ransom.
Elsewhere, other impediments threaten voter turnout as some Nigerians are yet
to collect their permanent voter’s card (PVC) with less than a week to the
poll.
What are the issues?
The co-founder and head of intelligence at data company
Stears, Michael Famoroti, tells CNN that critical issues around security and
the economy will be top of mind for voters and could influence their electoral
choices.
“Nigerians fall under two buckets: One is insecurity.
However, overall, the main issue that Nigerians agree needs to be dealt with is
the economy,” he said, with concerns ranging from poverty to unemployment and
policy.
“The cash crunch, petrol scarcity … are issues that are
likely going to be top of mind for those who make it to the polls and arguably
could sway the votes,” Famoroti says.Nigeria reissues old banknote as cash
fiasco threatens to disrupt election
Fuel shortages and scarcity of the newly redesigned local
currency have stirred violent protests in parts of Nigeria as millions of
people struggle to get their hands on new versions of bank notes.
Nigerians expect the eventual winner of the presidential
poll to hit the ground running in finding solutions to those problems,
including tackling the country’s burgeoning debt profile, oil theft, and a
controversial petrol subsidy that deprives the country of major oil revenue.
The top three candidates have made promises to tackle some
of these issues. The ruling party’s Tinubu vows to create jobs, grow the
economy, and “obliterate terror, kidnapping, banditry, and violent crime from
the face of our nation.”
Touting a “recover Nigeria” mantra, the PDP’s Abubakar says
he wants to “block government wastages” by first running a small government,
weaning the country off the petrol subsidy, and making it “the hub of crude oil
refining in Africa.”
The Labour Party’s Obi says his government will be keen to
shift Nigeria’s focus “from consumption to production” while also being
determined “to fight and significantly reduce corruption” and create systems to
reduce unemployment, insecurity, and inflation.
Who is tipped to win?
A predictive poll by Stears puts Obi ahead of the two main
challengers in a large voter turnout scenario. A lesser turnout will favor
Tinubu, according to the Stears’ poll.
“There was a scenario where we only considered voters who
had picked up their PVC based on that scenario, the Labour Party candidate is
the most likely winner,” Famoroti told CNN.
“However, we then also estimated a low turnout scenario. The
idea is that these are the harder than hardcore voters and those that most
likely will turn up to vote on the day. Under that scenario, the APC candidate
emerges victorious,” he added.
Another poll by Lagos-based SBM Intelligence does not
foresee a frontrunner but suggests that Obi and Abubakar could garner a
sufficient number of ballots to meet the 25% vote spread in 24 of Nigeria’s 36
states required by law to win.
The forecast is different for the Political Africa
Initiative (POLAF) whose survey polled three million people and predicts a
close race between the opposition PDP (38%) and the ruling APC (29%). Obi’s
Labour Party is projected to occupy third place with 27% of the votes.
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